UN secretary-general search remains unsettled after third council poll

The race to replace António Guterres as United Nations secretary-general remains wide open after a third informal Security Council vote failed to identify a candidate with sufficient backing from the permanent members.

Members met on Friday for a non-binding straw poll involving eight candidates. The 15 council representatives classified each contender as encouraged, discouraged or subject to no opinion. Results circulated by council members showed that Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan remained in first place, with nine favourable votes. Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett of Guyana followed with eight.

Rafael Grossi, Argentina’s candidate and head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, received eight discouraging votes and five in support. His position has weakened since the opening rounds of the contest. The other candidates also struggled to build momentum.

Michelle Bachelet, the former Chilean president, UN human rights chief and head of UN Women, recorded one favourable vote against 11 discouraging ones. Ivonne A-Baki, an Ecuadorian diplomat who entered the race later, received no support in the poll.

Geneva Solutions reports that the results have intensified speculation about whether further candidates will enter the contest. The high-level week of the UN General Assembly could give hopefuls a chance to meet governments and lobby Security Council members before the next vote.

A contest without an early favourite

The latest results contrast with recent secretary-general selections, in which one candidate established a lead relatively quickly. Guterres topped every poll conducted between July and early October 2016. His predecessor, Ban Ki-moon, became the leading contender after four rounds and consistently remained ahead thereafter.

This year, neither Grynspan nor Rodrigues Birkett has secured an uncontested position. Grynspan’s favourable result keeps her in contention, but her opposition has risen from one vote at the start of the process to five. Rodrigues Birkett appears to have stopped gaining support while encountering increasing resistance, according to Daniel Safran-Hon, an independent analyst following the campaign.

The uncertainty matters because the Security Council must recommend a candidate to the General Assembly, with the five permanent members holding veto power. A contender may therefore need more than broad support among elected council members: avoiding decisive opposition from the permanent five is also crucial.

Russia has already indicated that it is not satisfied with the current field. Kiril Logvinov, the international organisations director at Russia’s foreign ministry, said in an interview published by Interfax that Moscow had not found a candidate who clearly met its requirements. He said Russian officials had met all the contenders and would remain open to new names entering the race before the end of the year.

Logvinov described Russia’s preferred secretary-general as someone who would honour commitments, remain impartial and resist pressure from Western countries. The positions of the other permanent members were less evident before the General Assembly’s high-level week.

More time, more candidates and growing pressure

A fourth straw poll had been discussed for the final day of the high-level week. However, the latest result has led some observers to argue that the council should delay another vote if new contenders are about to join. New candidates would need time to visit capitals and present their cases to member states.

The lack of a clear outcome also leaves existing candidates weighing whether to continue. Grossi was initially regarded as a strong contender, but his support has declined. Possible obstacles cited in the campaign include Argentina’s renewed claim to the Falkland Islands, Buenos Aires’ voting alignment with the United States and Israel on some UN issues, Grossi’s Italian citizenship and the preference expressed in parts of the UN community for a woman to take the post.

A-Baki’s public association with Donald Trump may also have worked against her. Bachelet, meanwhile, has indicated that she does not expect to win, telling a conference in Chile that she would not become secretary-general and describing that prospect as a relief.

Guterres’ term ends on 31 December, creating pressure for the council to reach an agreement before the transition becomes urgent. A prolonged contest could stretch into the autumn and potentially beyond the start of the new year.

The next secretary-general will inherit a broad and difficult agenda. In remarks before the high-level week, Guterres highlighted the risks and opportunities posed by artificial intelligence, the need to reduce violence in the Middle East while pursuing a two-state settlement for Israelis and Palestinians, and the demand for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine.

Public expectations will add another test. A UN Foundation survey covering 20 countries found that the organisation still enjoys general trust, but many people want visible change. Most respondents knew little about the candidates, while six in ten said they would prefer the first woman to lead the UN. The eventual choice will therefore be judged not only by governments, but also by whether the new leader can make the organisation’s work feel relevant in people’s everyday lives.