US urges dialogue as Tigray conflict deepens regional tensions

The United States has urged Ethiopia and Eritrea to step back from confrontation and resume talks as fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region threatens to draw neighbouring countries into a wider crisis.

Washington’s warning came before a diplomatic meeting scheduled for Sunday in Alamein, Egypt. According to a diplomatic source cited by AFP, the gathering is expected to include the presidents of Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, along with Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of Sudan’s armed forces. The talks are being held alongside an African Business Forum.

The summit follows reports that Ethiopian federal troops have entered Mekelle, the capital of Tigray. A humanitarian source told AFP that the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF, had pulled out of the city. Information from the region remains difficult to confirm because communications have been heavily disrupted since the latest hostilities began.

Fighting reaches Tigray’s capital

The latest round of violence began on September 23, when the TPLF attacked neighbouring states and said it was again engaged in an open war with Ethiopia’s federal government. Federal forces, backed by pro-government militias, have pushed the TPLF northwards and advanced towards Mekelle in recent days.

A journalist in the city told AFP that TPLF fighters and officials were leaving. The humanitarian source, citing reports from aid workers, said federal troops and allied forces had been seen in several parts of Mekelle. Government offices and police stations were reportedly left without personnel to protect them.

Residents expressed concern about what could follow the withdrawal. One warned that public buildings and other property might be looted, while another said the absence of security raised fears of lawlessness and personal danger.

The reports could not be independently checked. Telecommunications networks in Tigray have been severely affected, limiting the flow of information from the region. Ethiopia’s national defence forces and the office of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had not responded to AFP requests for comment.

The TPLF has dominated Tigray for years and removed an administration appointed by the federal government earlier this year. Its leader, Debretsion Gebremichael, has suggested that the group could return to the kind of guerrilla warfare it used after federal forces captured Mekelle in 2020. The TPLF eventually recovered the city in the middle of 2021.

A conflict with regional consequences

The fighting has also damaged Ethiopia’s relationships with Eritrea and Egypt. Addis Ababa expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats and closed its embassy in Asmara on Thursday. Eritrea, which says Ethiopia intends to invade and obtain access to its coast, replied that it would end diplomatic relations with its neighbour.

Ethiopia also expelled an Egyptian diplomat without giving a reason. Egypt answered by taking the same action against an Ethiopian diplomat.

The United States said the deterioration in relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea could have consequences across the region. It called on both governments to respect the borders and sovereignty of neighbouring states, avoid escalation and return to diplomatic cooperation.

The TPLF’s leadership has portrayed the struggle as more than an internal Ethiopian dispute. Debretsion has linked the war to a contest over the Red Sea, reflecting the strategic importance of the coastline and maritime access in the surrounding region. Ethiopia is landlocked, while Eritrea controls a Red Sea coastline.

The expected meeting in Alamein brings together governments with interests in the conflict and countries facing their own security pressures. Its participants include Egypt, which is already in a diplomatic dispute with Ethiopia, Eritrea, whose relations with Addis Ababa have sharply worsened, Somalia and Sudan.

Echoes of the 2020-22 war

The renewed fighting has revived memories of Ethiopia’s previous Tigray war, which lasted from 2020 to 2022. That conflict was among the world’s deadliest in recent years and caused more than 600,000 deaths, according to the African Union.

A peace agreement reached in Pretoria in 2022, with mediation from African institutions and Washington, produced an uneasy halt to the fighting. The settlement was never fully carried out, however, and the calm weakened by the following year.

The TPLF governed Ethiopia from 1991 until 2018, when Abiy’s rise marginalised the movement. Abiy comes from the Oromia region, and the political shift deepened the divide between the federal authorities and Tigray’s former ruling force.

With federal troops now reported inside Mekelle and the TPLF indicating it may continue attacks outside the capital, the immediate security situation remains uncertain. The regional meeting is therefore taking place as Ethiopia’s internal conflict increasingly risks becoming a dispute involving several governments around the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.