World · · 4 min read
Eritrea cuts ties with Ethiopia as fighting spreads in the north
The diplomatic rupture follows renewed battles in northern Ethiopia and raises fears that conflicts across the Horn of Africa could become more closely linked.
Eritrea has ended diplomatic relations with Ethiopia, deepening a confrontation that is unfolding alongside the most serious fighting in Ethiopia since its 2020–2022 civil war.
The decision came after Ethiopia said it would shut its embassy in Asmara and expel 10 Eritrean diplomats. Eritrea’s foreign ministry responded that it would take the same measure, accusing Ethiopia of sustained hostility, encroachment on Eritrean coastal areas and support for armed groups challenging its government. Ethiopia has made similar allegations against Eritrea, while both countries deny the other’s claims.
The rupture follows months of deteriorating relations. At the centre of the dispute is Ethiopia’s effort to secure direct access to the Red Sea, despite being landlocked, and its accusation that Eritrea is assisting the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF. The group leads the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, an opposition coalition fighting for territory in the north.
Battles across Tigray, Amhara and Afar
Clashes between Tigrayan-led forces and troops aligned with Ethiopia’s federal government have intensified since last week. The fighting is spread across Tigray, Amhara and Afar regions, with government forces reportedly making advances in Tigray.
According to Al Jazeera’s Ethiopia bureau chief Mohammed Taha Tawakel, federal forces have captured several towns and are approaching Mekelle, Tigray’s regional capital. In Afar, a pro-government armed group said it had retaken Erebti, a town captured by opposition fighters earlier in the week. The group credited the Ethiopian military with air support and indicated that it intended to continue advancing.
The opposition still appears to retain an important supply and movement route along the Eritrean border. Tawakel reported that this connection could help sustain the Tigrayan-led forces even as government troops gain ground elsewhere.
There are concerns that the fighting could reach large Tigrayan towns including Adwa, Axum, Shire and Mekelle. Residents have already begun leaving for neighbouring Amhara and Afar, according to the report.
The violence has also touched Addis Ababa. An explosion was reported at Ethiopia’s Ministry of Defence early on Thursday, marking an apparent expansion of the conflict beyond the northern battlefield. An AFP-cited diplomatic source said small drones were the most likely cause. The conflict monitor ACLED has previously recorded the use of drones by rebel forces against airbases and airports, although Ethiopia’s military possesses a much larger drone arsenal.
Egypt and Sudan are also drawn in
The diplomatic crisis is not confined to Ethiopia and Eritrea. Ethiopia has accused Egypt and Sudan of supporting Tigrayan rebel forces, adding to existing disputes with both countries.
Relations between Ethiopia and Egypt have long been strained by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Cairo regards the project as a threat to its water security and its share of Nile resources. The two countries have also exchanged expulsions: Egypt ordered an Ethiopian diplomat to leave on Thursday after Ethiopia had expelled an Egyptian diplomat. Egyptian state-linked media described Addis Ababa’s action as unjustified and said Cairo had responded on the basis of reciprocity.
Sudan’s military-backed authorities, meanwhile, accuse Ethiopia of aiding rebel groups involved in Sudan’s own civil war. Ethiopia rejects that charge. Ahmed Soliman, a senior research fellow in the Africa programme at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera that the two conflicts are becoming increasingly connected, with each side accusing the other of sheltering and supplying opposition forces across their borders. He said Egypt’s dispute with Ethiopia over the Nile had further tied Cairo to the escalation.
A history of conflict and renewed regional risks
The latest crisis sits atop a long and difficult history. Ethiopia annexed Eritrea in 1962, before an armed independence campaign led by Isaias Afwerki secured Eritrean independence in 1993. The neighbours then fought a border war from 1998 to 2000.
A thaw began after Abiy Ahmed became Ethiopia’s prime minister in 2018. He sought to restore relations with Eritrea, which later supported Ethiopia’s government during the civil war against the TPLF from 2020 to 2022. That conflict caused hundreds of thousands of deaths.
Relations have since deteriorated, in part because of Abiy’s repeated calls for sea access. Analysts say officials in Asmara view those statements as a potential territorial challenge rather than simply an economic objective.
Laura Hammond, a development studies professor at SOAS University of London, told Al Jazeera that regional involvement was already increasing through Eritrea’s support for the Tigrayan-led alliance. She warned that prolonged fighting could bring Eritrean forces more directly into Tigray and worsen tensions within Sudan.
Martin Plaut, an analyst of the Horn of Africa, also told Al Jazeera that the situation could spread. The concern is that a conflict involving Ethiopia and Eritrea could draw in Sudan, Egypt and armed groups operating across porous borders, turning a national struggle into a wider regional crisis.