Nigeria urged to use middle-power status in a changing world

Nigeria has the resources and regional influence to play a larger role in an international system moving away from US dominance, according to an analysis published by the Belfer Center. The piece presents the country as a middle power whose choices could affect both African affairs and wider global governance.

The analysis argues that Nigeria’s most effective path is to combine national priorities with a broader network of relationships among middle powers. Such an approach would allow Abuja to work with different partners as global competition intensifies, rather than relying on a single alignment. Its ability to do so, however, will depend heavily on whether it can reduce the domestic problems that limit its reach.

A global system in transition

The post-Cold War period produced a world dominated by the United States, but the Belfer Center says that arrangement has been weakening. China’s economic expansion and ambitions for international leadership, Russia’s renewed military and political weight, and the growing activism of countries such as India, Brazil, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and South Africa have all contributed to the change.

These developments are producing a more contested and multipolar environment. International institutions are under pressure from competing demands while governments confront problems that no major power can solve alone, including climate change, terrorism, poverty, inequality and pandemics.

That setting gives middle powers a potential role beyond their individual size. Countries such as Nigeria can help connect competing blocs, negotiate across geopolitical divisions and press for reforms that reflect the interests of developing regions. The analysis says middle powers want to be treated as strategic partners rather than as states whose views are considered only after decisions have been made.

Nigeria’s importance begins with its position in Africa. It is the continent’s most populous country and is described as Africa’s leading economy. The International Monetary Fund is cited as projecting Nigerian gross domestic product above $377.37 billion in 2026. The country also has a substantial military and diplomatic network, giving it the means to project influence beyond its borders.

Regional reach and untapped capacity

Nigeria has played leading roles in the Economic Community of West African States, the Lake Chad Basin Commission and the African Union. It has also been prominent in peacekeeping and collective-security efforts in Africa and elsewhere. Its regional leadership was especially visible in ECOWAS operations in Liberia and Sierra Leone, where Nigerian-led interventions helped bring civil wars toward an end despite the country’s own economic difficulties at the time.

Demography and geography add to Nigeria’s potential. Population projections indicate that it could become the world’s third most populous country, behind India and China, in the coming decades. The country is also identified as the world’s eighth-largest by surface area. About 76.2% of its land is classified as arable for permanent crops and pastures, a share substantially higher than the average for eight other large African countries listed in the analysis.

Those advantages could support a major role in African food security and global markets. Nigeria possesses significant oil, gas and agricultural resources, as well as a large and capable population. Yet the Belfer Center warns that resources alone cannot convert potential into durable influence. Their value depends on effective institutions, security and governance.

Violence remains a major obstacle. The analysis points to terrorism in the Northeast and parts of the Northwest, clashes between herders and farmers in the North Central and Southwest, and intermittent separatist activity in the Southeast and some areas of the South-South. These pressures weaken the state’s ability to use its economic and agricultural capacity fully.

From nonalignment to flexible partnerships

Nigeria’s history shows that domestic political purpose can shape its foreign policy. After the civil war, a more assertive national outlook coincided with a stronger external posture. The country adopted mutual reciprocity as a foreign-policy principle and, during General Murtala Muhammed’s leadership, presented Africa as capable of determining its own future. Nigeria’s roles in OPEC and the Non-Aligned Movement reinforced that approach.

That activism helped drive the creation of ECOWAS and contributed to the establishment of the African Union. Nigeria also promoted the idea that middle powers should cooperate in seeking a fairer and more stable international system. Proposals for a concert of middle powers and a South Atlantic Treaty Organization reflected an ambition to secure a stronger African voice in a reformed multilateral order, although the concert proposal did not gain sufficient support.

The current challenge is to translate that tradition into a more flexible form of engagement. The analysis says Nigeria is cultivating relationships with other middle powers to manage geopolitical complexity and pursue shared prosperity and peace. This is the logic behind a move from older nonalignment toward multialignment: maintaining room to work with different countries while protecting national and regional interests.

For Nigeria, the opportunity is substantial but not automatic. Its influence will depend on whether leaders can pair diplomatic ambition with improvements at home. If they can, the country may strengthen its role as Africa’s regional power and as a bridge in a fragmented global order. If they cannot, insecurity and weak governance will continue to narrow the space created by its population, resources and strategic position.